The future is complex

February 17, 2007

You know,

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.
--Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics

agreed, but one thing is certain: it becomes way more complex than it used to be.

I recently just skimmed this 2007 Web Predictions and by quickly counting every major trend they identified in their post i figured out that I can't keep up with the progress any more. I can dive into any given topic deep enough to cope with it, but not more all of them at once. Personally I'm unable to  accumulate information that fast anymore, and maybe it  is also impossible for a company. You can always hire people, but besides the difficulty of getting the right ones, you start loosing focus. Beeing "a jack in all trades, master in none" is no viable solution.

I recognize the pattern though. In the beginning, when i got started with the messy world of computers, i could keep up to date with all and every topic. Heck, there was only one (offline) magazine! "Byte", and much later than came, heise C't for the german market.

After just  a decade down the road, the web came and and funny enough, the earliest online reference of Bye magazine covers 3D graphics for everyone. That was in '96 and now 10 years later i come back doing stuff with SecondLife. History is repeating itself? Or is it just me running around in circles?

have fun

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